Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
