A mere eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
As per Opta, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
